Tropical storm Erika, a potential hurricane threat to Florida?

In this still-quiet year for tropical development in the Atlantic and Caribbean region, the fifth named storm, tropical storm Erika, provides perhaps the first real hurricane threat to Florida in years, with the forecast showing that Erika will head in that states direction.

Tropical storm Erika is currently situated in the Atlantic, moving rapidly west towards the Caribbean Leeward islands. With sustained winds of 45mph, higher gusts and minimum central pressure of 1003mb, Erika is not a strong tropical storm.

But slow intensification is forecast for Erika and it’s what will happen when Erika gets beyond the Leeward islands that will be interesting to watch for the insurance, reinsurance and ILS market.

Tropical storm Erika forecast path and track, predicted to become a hurricane before heading in the direction of Florida

The tracking map and forecast path above shows that tropical storm Erika is expected to maintain its tropical storm status through the Leeward islands, without being subjected to degradation due to wind shear, as recent storm Danny was.

Once across the Leeward islands and Puerto Rico, the tropical storm Erika forecast predicts that we will soon see hurricane Erika form.

The reason for this forecast is the high sea surface temperatures around the northern Caribbean and Bahamas, as well as lower wind shear in that area. So if Erika can survive the Caribbean wind shear and dry air threat, which is not guaranteed, and gets over to those warmer waters, intensification is highly likely to occur.

So tropical storm Erika may become hurricane Erika as early as Saturday morning, according to the latest NOAA forecast intelligence. From there Erika is likely to be steered in the direction of Florida, with the forecast models then diverging, as to whether Erika will make landfall in Florida, enter the Gulf of Mexico, recurve out to sea, or even head further up the east coast.

Tropical storm Erika forecast models, which largely take the storm towards Florida as a hurricane

It seems that Erika presents the first real hurricane threat to Florida that we’ve seen for a number of years, based on the current forecasts. With no direct hurricane hits on the state since Wilma in 2005, Florida is well overdue seeing a hurricane approach it.

At the moment the forecasts only show Erika reaching Category 1 hurricane strength on Saturday, however if Erika makes it that far and follows the forecast path, there will be considerable uncertainty in just how much intensification could occur around the Bahamas area, where seas are warm and land interaction can be minimal.

Erika is perhaps the most important tropical storm for the insurance, reinsurance and catastrophe bond market to keep a watch for in years. It’s far too early to discuss landfall probabilities or eventual hurricane strength, but there is definitely a chance that Florida will see this storm, at some level of intensity.

With Florida remaining ground-zero for the world’s property catastrophe reinsurance, insurance-linked securities (ILS) and catastrophe bond market, any storm that approaches the state will receive a significant amount of interest.

The insured values at risk to hurricane damage and storm surge are perhaps greater than anywhere else in the world. For the ILS market specifically, the Florida property catastrophe reinsurance market sees the highest participation of ILS and third-party capital, resulting in the most cat bond and collateralized reinsurance exposure of any location in the world.

It’s very early days with Erika. While the tropical storm had a very strong chance of becoming a hurricane and getting close to Florida, how close it gets, whether it makes landfall and also how strong Erika is at the time, is all very uncertain still.

But Erika is definitely an Atlantic storm to watch. The tracking map and forecast model images in this article will update automatically and we’ll likely begin to update this page as the storm develops.

You can also track this and every storm over on our 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season page.