Hurricane Gonzalo still tracking to strike Bermuda, latest updates

Hurricane Gonzalo, a major Category 4 storm, continues to head for Bermuda and looks set to impact the island heavily over the coming day or so. Here are some of the latest updates, tracking maps and forecast model information.

To prevent our previous article getting too long and dropping off the front page we felt a new update would be helpful. You can find our previous article on hurricane Gonzalo here.

Hurricane Gonzalo, the seventh named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is currently carrying maximum sustained winds of 145mph and gusts of up to 170mph towards Bermuda. The Category 4 storm has not yet shown any signs of weakening, instead intensifying gradually through the day. As it has intensified the forecast path has moved nearer to Bermuda, although it still shows the storm passing a little off the western shore of the island.

The minimum central pressure has dropped again to 940mb and hurricane forces winds now extend outwards 45 miles and tropical storm force winds 150 miles. Hurricane Gonzalo remains a strong Category 4 storm and poses a significant threat to Bermuda.

It’s not just the winds that are a threat to Bermuda. Brian Owens, meteorologist and senior director at RMS, told Artemis; “The intensity and long-duration of Gonzalo prior to reaching Bermuda may drive dangerous storm surge towards the island’s southern coastline.”

Owens said that while the forecast still shows the center of Gonzalo tracking slightly to the west of Bermuda, there’s a 50% chance that the entire island will be hit by at least hurricane force winds.

Updates from some of the reinsurance risk modelling firms can be found below these tracking maps.

The closer Gonzalo gets to Bermuda without deviating the more likely the storm will have a potentially deadly impact on the island. It is still to be hoped that Gonzalo is steered as far offshore from the island as possible and we hope our friends and colleagues there remain safe. Currently Gonzalo is expected to make it’s closest pass to Bermuda late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Hurricane Gonzalo’s current position and forecast path:

National Hurricane Center forecast path for hurricane Gonzalo

Hurricane Gonzalo intensity and forecast track or path - Source: Weather Underground

Hurricane Gonzalo forecast models - Source: Weather Underground

Latest update from Impact Forecasting:

LATEST DETAILS ON GONZALO
COORDINATES: 26.1° north, 68.6° west (previous location: 23.5° north, 68.0° west)
LOCATION: 485 miles (780 kilometers) south-southwest of Bermuda
MOVEMENT: north at 7 mph (11 kph) (previous: northwest at 12 mph (19 kph))
WINDS: 145 mph (230 kph) with gusts to 170 mph (280 kph) (previous: 130 mph (210 kph))
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 150 miles (240 kilometers)
RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 45 miles (75 kilometers)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 millibars (previous: 949 millibars)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 4

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Hurricane Warning is currently in effect for Bermuda.

LANDFALL AND LOSS PROBABILITIES

FORECAST LANDFALL LOCATION: Bermuda

FORECAST LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: Friday evening local time (ADT)

24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: HIGH

DISCUSSION
Major Hurricane Gonzalo, located approximately 485 miles (780 kilometers) south-southwest of Bermuda, is currently tracking north at 7 mph (11 kph). A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Gonzalo measured an surface wind speed of 155 mph (250 kph), but this observation was not supported by the flight-level winds – which were only as high as 145 mph (230 kph) in the northeastern quadrant – or other surface data measurements in subsequent passes in that portion of the storm. However, the NHC has raised the initial intensity to 145 mph (230 kph) for this advisory based on a compromise between the flight-level and surface data, as well as satellite intensity estimates.

Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12 to 24 hours while Gonzalo remains in a relatively light wind shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures. Some weakening is anticipated on Friday once the vertical wind shear begins to increase, but Gonzalo is not forecast to reach much cooler waters until about 48 hours. Therefore, the hurricane is expected to maintain major hurricane strength through the next 36 hours or so while it passes Bermuda, with more rapid weakening forecast after 48 hours. The official NHC forecast is a little higher than the previous one during the first 48 hours to account for the updated initial intensity. This forecast is close to the intensity model guidance for the next 24 hours and then remains close to the intensity consensus thereafter. Gonzalo is still forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone by Day 3 while it passes near Canada’s Newfoundland, and at that point it should also be very close to taking on frontal characteristics. Gonzalo should dissipate by Day 5 while it moves eastward over the North Atlantic.

The initial motion is towards the north, and Gonzalo is moving a little slower than was previously forecast, which is having some effects on the track forecast. There is very little spread among the model guidance, but nearly all of the track models are slower than the previous forecast. Gonzalo is moving northward to the east of a trough over the eastern United States, and the hurricane should begin to accelerate north-northeastward ahead of this trough from this point forward. Since this acceleration is somewhat delayed, the updated NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda on Friday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight or early Friday morning. It should be noted that wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hilly terrain are often up to 30 percent stronger than at the surface, and in some elevated locations can be even greater.

A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over Bermuda.

Large swells generated by Gonzalo are affecting portions of the Virgin Islands, the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, and portions of the Bahamas. Swells will reach much of the east coast of the United States and Bermuda today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Latest update from AIR Worldwide:

Hurricane Gonzalo Intensifies to a Category 4 and Takes Aim at Bermuda: AIR

BOSTON, Oct. 16, 2014 – According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, as of 11:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday, October 16, 2014 Hurricane Gonzalo’s eye was located at 26.1°N 68.6°W, about 485 miles (780 km) SSW of Bermuda. The storm is moving north at 7 mph (11 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are close to 145 mph (230 km/h) according to the National Hurricane Center, making the storm a Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind intensity scale. The minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).

“As Gonzalo moves into cooler sea surface temperatures and slightly higher wind shear over the next 24 hours, it is expected to weaken slowly and turn towards the north-northeast while increasing its forward speed,” said Scott Stransky, manager and principal scientist at AIR Worldwide. “However, it is still expected to be a Category 3 storm when it passes very close to Bermuda on Friday. Gonzalo is the strongest hurricane to occur in the Atlantic since Ophelia in 2011. It is the first major event to impact Bermuda since Hurricane Fabian in 2003.”

Gonzalo has already caused power outages, water shortages, and structural damage in several Caribbean islands, particularly St. Maarten and St. Martin, Antigua, and the Leeward Islands. Winds reaching 88 mph damaged a luxury hotel on the west coast of Antigua, blew off roof coverings, and caused severe damage to the island’s farms. Several cruise ships from Carnival, Disney, and Royal Caribbean cruise lines have canceled or changed itineraries due to the storm.

Stransky continued, “Gonzalo is expected to pose a significant threat to Bermuda beginning late Thursday and Friday morning, with hurricane conditions arriving on Friday. The island is still recovering from Tropical Storm Fay, which struck on Sunday, and prices for contractors are already rising in anticipation of Gonzalo. Fay took out power to nearly all of Bermuda and power still has not been restored everywhere. Fay also downed trees, branches, and coconuts, increasing the threat from flying debris due to Gonzalo’s winds.”

Stransky noted, “Dangerous storm surges are expected in Bermuda along with severe winds. Note that winds at elevated locations and on the windward sides of hills can be accelerated significantly. Additionally, Gonzalo is expected to bring 3 to 6 inches of rain over Bermuda.”

Residents are pulling boats in from dockyards and boarding up businesses and homes, while stocking up on food and supplies. Store shelves are reportedly empty.

Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected to reach portions of the Virgin Islands, the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, parts of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the United States and Bermuda today.

According to AIR, Bermuda’s building code is extremely strict and well enforced. Homes in Bermuda are typically one or two stories and constructed of “Bermuda Stone,” a locally quarried limestone, or of concrete blocks. Roofs are commonly made of limestone slate tiles cemented together. Commercial buildings, typically of reinforced concrete construction, rarely exceed six stories. Wood-frame structures, which are more vulnerable to wind damage, are not common on the island. In both residential and commercial buildings, window openings are generally small and window shutters are common. Unprotected doors and windows can increase a building’s vulnerability to damage from flying debris.

These features make Bermuda’s building stock quite resistant to winds, and homes are designed to withstand sustained winds of 110 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane) and gusts of up to 150 mph. Hurricane Gonzalo will put to test Bermuda’s building code with a close bypass as a Category 3 hurricane.