Nate forecast to reach hurricane strength on track for Gulf coast

Tropical storm Nate is set on a course towards the United States, where forecasts predict it will make a Gulf Coast landfall as a hurricane. It’s uncertain how strong or where the landfall could be, but sea temperatures in the Gulf are conducive to intensification, making Nate a storm to watch.

Nate is the fourteenth named tropical storm of the 2017 Atlantic season and its forecast could have some in the reinsurance, catastrophe bond and ILS sector rightly concerned.

Tropical storm Nate’s forecast path takes the storm into the Gulf of Mexico where it is expected to intensify to become hurricane Nate prior to a landfall somewhere between Texas and the Florida panhandle.

Tropical storm Nate forecast to take a path towards the Gulf Coast as a hurricane

Following the impacts of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria on reinsurance and ILS markets, the prospects of a fourth hurricane landfall will be concerning to many in the industry.

Nate currently has 40 mph sustained winds with higher gusts and a minimum central pressure of 999mb, as at 3:00 PM UTC on October 5th.

Tropical storm Nate has some challenges on its way to achieving hurricane status, with the storm set to cross over Nicaragua and Honduras, before then emerging back over the Caribbean and then heading for the Yucatan Peninsula. Once storm Nate has made it across the Yucatan though, it will be crossing over warm seas with plenty of surface temperature to feed its intensification into a hurricane.

Meteorologists say that conditions are conducive for a hurricane to form and make landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast late this weekend coming. The sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are plenty warm enough to fuel this and wind sheer is slight in the region, meaning there is little in the way of hurricane Nate should it navigate the Yucatan without dissipating.

Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures, from NOAA observations

There remains considerable uncertainty in the forecast for tropical storm or hurricane Nate at this time though, but the main obstacles to future development are the land masses in its path and should it navigate them successfully there is every chance of a hurricane landfall in the Gulf.

Where exactly remains difficult for meteorologists to predict, with forecast models suggesting anywhere from east Texas to the Florida panhandle. The GFS model runs below center on New Orleans currently, as do most of the forecast cones, but it’s far too early to get concerned about a New Orleans landfall at this time.

Also uncertain is the intensity still (see modelled intensity guidance below), as most models are struggling to factor in how much re-intensification could occur once Nate passes the Yucatan peninsula, or how much the passage over land could degrade the integrity of the storm.

The forecast for Nate will likely be clearer as we move closer to the weekend.

The reinsurance and ILS market will not like the current forecast and a hurricane Nate threatening the Gulf Coast could stimulate live cat protection buying, as some companies may find themselves a little lacking in certainty over protection layers of reinsurance or ILS that have been impacted by the severe 2017 season already.

Stay tuned to Artemis and we’ll update you. You can track the 2017 hurricane season over at our dedicated page.

Tropical storm Nate forecast models - From Tropicaltidbits.com

Tropical storm Nate intensity model guidance - From Tropicaltidbits.com