AIR puts hurricane Irma as up to $65 billion insured loss

Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide said that combined insurance losses for Hurricane Irma for the United States and some islands in the Caribbean will range from $20 billion to $65 Billion, with the U.S. likely to suffer up to $50 billion of the toll.

Of course, hurricane Irma remains on track towards Florida, but the uncertainty in the track and landfall location is the reason for the wide spread in the insurance and reinsurance industry loss estimate. The further west the landfall the lower the loss is likely to be, taking the most severe winds away from the highest insured value penetration in the state.

The estimates are therefore based on the NHC’s Saturday, September 9, 5:00 a.m. EDT forecast advisory for hurricane Irma and so subject to change and revision.

AIR estimates industry insured losses for select Caribbean islands resulting from Hurricane Irma’s wind and precipitation-induced flooding range as between $5 billion and $15 billion.

AIR’s said that its loss estimates for the U.S. include, “wind and storm surge damage to onshore residential, commercial, and industrial properties and their contents, automobiles, and time element coverage (additional living expenses for residential properties and business interruption for commercial properties).”

For the Caribbean they include, “wind and precipitation-induced flooding damage to onshore residential, commercial, and industrial properties and their contents, automobiles, and time element coverage (additional living expenses for residential properties and business interruption for commercial properties).”

Also read:

– Live cat trades at $80 billion on hurricane Irma threat.

– As Irma tracks west, impact to ILS market lessens: Brookes, RMS.

– Increased use of retro to limit reinsurers’ Irma exposure: A.M. Best.

– Cat bonds drop 16% on hurricane Irma, prices discounted heavily.

– Hurricane Irma track in westward shift, remains on course for Florida.

– Stone Ridge reinsurance and ILS fund drops 8%+ on Irma threat.

– Interest in back-up reinsurance rises on Irma, live cat still quiet (so far).

– Billions of catastrophe bonds at risk from Hurricane Irma.

– CCRIF to pay $15.6m on Hurricane Irma impact to Leeward Islands.

– Hurricane Irma track aims at Miami, a $131bn realistic disaster scenario.

– Blue Capital halts ILS fund buy-backs as hurricane Irma approaches.

– Cat bond trading slight on Irma, Kilimanjaro II Re trades down.

– Hurricane Harvey re/insurance industry loss over $10bn: AIR.

– Irma & Harvey losses combined may still just be an earnings event: Morgan Stanley.

– Citrus Re 2017 cat bond notes trade down 50% on hurricane Irma threat.

– Hurricane Irma live cat activity focused on $40bn+ loss, pricing uncertain.

– Hurricane Irma landfall in Florida would hit reinsurers hard: KBW.

– Hurricane Irma a potential U.S. (Florida) threat this weekend.